Learning to "Think 2950": Some observations for 1650 players.

This article is the result of a series of conversations between a veteran player of ME-PBM 1650 and a first-time player who started in the 2950 scenario. As teammates on the Free side of Game 22 of 2950, we came to the conclusion that many players were strategizing and evaluating the play balance of the 2950 scenario according to the conventional wisdom of the 1650 game. Both of us believe that this is a mistake; the 2950 game demands a fresh look. There are three key changes which force 1650 players to rethink their assumptions: economy, geography, and agents.

Most 2950 nations start with very fragile economies, and it is entirely possible to drive them into bankruptcy within the first few turns. One writer in the e-zine The Mouth of Sauron observed this about the Dark Servants, but it is also true of the Woodmen, Northmen, Silvans, and Rangers. Even the mighty Gondors could go broke quickly with the right combination of over-recruiting and gold thefts. The implications of the new economy touch every aspect of play. Each player must be a careful bookkeeper. We heartily recommend projecting revenues and expenses over at least two turns. Allow some slack for limited sales (the initial maximum sale seems to be under 20,000 gold), pop center losses, and just plain errors. Especially pay attention to seasonal changes in production. This is serious. Players who are used to the large numbers of characters and troops of the 1650 game will be in for some unpleasant surprises if they blithely recruit in the style of the old game.

Be aware, too, that the capture or destruction even of small pop centers can make a huge difference. A nation running close to the edge cannot afford the loss of a village or a couple of gold- producing camps. On the other hand, large pop centers with fortifications are much harder to take, because no one can afford the armies it would take to storm them. In the absence of large armies, the much-maligned Siege order may prove more popular. Military tactics also must change in a limited economy. Massive assaults against large pop centers are nearly impossible, except perhaps in the later stages of the game. Military actions must be planned and evaluated in terms of rather modest increments of cost vs. benefit. Consider recruiting fewer troops with better armor and weapons. Beef up your armies with artifacts and mages; combat bonuses will be worth proportionally more in this game. Remember that feeding an army might be more cost-effective, since you can get it into combat more quickly.

Just as you want to minimize your own expenses, you want to maximize your opponents' maintenance costs. Look for opportunities to force your foes to keep more troops in the field than you do. This may be done by maintaining interior lines, as in northwestern Mordor, or by threatening several pop centers with a few mobile troops. The latter strategy looks especially promising for the Corsairs against the Gondors (and vice versa) for the Long Rider in Rhovanion, and perhaps for the Witch King in Eriador. In some cases a force may do more harm by staying visible and tying down garrisons than it can do by committing itself to an attack.

Remember that your opponents are operating under similar constraints. (Yes, even the Gondors.) When in doubt about the size of the enemy armies you see, don't assume they contain huge numbers of heavy troops. You may well be looking at a herd of men-at-arms. Even if they are heavy troops, you may rejoice as they draw their fat paychecks from your enemy's treasury.

A tight economy also mandates team cooperation. As important as this was in the old game, it is even more so in the new. Richer and rear-rank nations should be prepared to transfer gold and pop centers to the front liners, perhaps within the first few turns.

The next major change from 1650 is the new political geography. A previous writer in the Mouth noted the disadvantages faced by the Dark Servants, who no longer have a major presence in Eriador. He correctly pointed out that the Witch King is split between Minas Morgul and the ruins of Angmar, while the Dragon Lord faces all or part of the forces of five Free nations. We think, however, that the geopolitical changes are more far-reaching and not so one-sided:

Angmar/Arnor--The Witch King, while his capital and crucial characters are in Mordor, has two fewer Freeps to deal with. Cardolan, with its pesky ability to hire armies at no cost, is gone, severely restricting the Free Peoples' ability to take out Er-Murazor early-on. Here especially a small stay-at-home force coupled with a small cavalry army with food would be very effective in tying down the two Eriador Free Peoples. As in 1650, negotiations with the region's neutrals is crucial to give the area Free something to think about. Evils should watch out for the tremendous Freep challenge characters in the area. Mirkwood/Riddermark--In one sense, the Dragon Lord in 2950 is even worse off than he was in 1650 (if that were possible). He is surrounded by five Free peoples, three of whom have nothing better to do than to take DL pop centers (Sinda, Silvan and Woodmen). But, with the reduced economies in 2950, the Dragon Lord is much safer. Dol Guldur becomes a virtually impregnable fortress. Goblin Gate is a formidable obstacle, especially without the Dwarven heavy infantry in the area. This is one theater in which the Freeps really have to coordinate pressure on the Dragon Lord using the Sindar's challenge characters, the Woodmen's recruitment capabilities and the Silvan's agents and armies. Lothlorien is more vulnerable here than in 1650. The Dragon Lord's biggest enemy is his economy, and the Free would do well to implement a gold-theft program against the Dragon Lord ASAP.

The Riders of Rohan are a bit of a wild card in the region, and really in all of Middle Earth. Located at a crucial road juncture, equipped with the ability to recruit all heavy cavalry (if they conjure mounts), even blessed with some metals production, Rohan can be, well, the cavalry that rides in at the last minute to save the day. This requires that the Rohirrim are careful to provision their armies and provide armor and weapons for the few troops they can support. But the appearance of 2000 Rohan HC at Dol Guldur could spell the Dragon Lord's doom, and they can make a valuable contribution as far away as the Sea of Rhûn -- if the Rohan player is committed to the team.

The Dunlendings and White Wizard can shift the balance of power in the region, pin down Rohan troops and generally make nuisances of themselves by plaguing the Free in the area with uncertainty. The Dark Servants need at least one of these neutrals, preferably both. Offer anything and everything, for these neutrals are surrounded by Free, and if they wait until Turn 10 before making a decision, the Free nations in the area will be able to devote most of their attention to them. For the Free, they don't need the Eriador neutrals on their side, but they do need to keep them from joining the Dark Servants until Angmar is clear. Again, fortifications are very important; Isengard is impervious to army attack early in the 2950 scenario. The Free need to keep up communication with these neutrals. If they can secure their allegiance, that will allow Rohan to ride to the assistance of the other Free in Mirkwood, Rhovanion or Ithilien.

Rhovanion/Rhûn -- Here the balance of power has shifted somewhat in favor of the Free. The Northmen can out-recruit the Long Rider, and the Blind Sorcerer lacks a massive army to send to Uvatha's aid. Long Rider pop centers are much more vulnerable, especially the village at 3017. Here, as in the Gondors, the evils need to be careful with their agents lest they lose them. The Northmen will need substantial financial support if they are to recruit enough troops to stymie the Long Rider and Blind Sorcerer forces. But it can be done, especially with the Northmen able to draw upon the presence of Silvan and Dwarven troops in the area. The relocation of the Dwarves' capital to the Iron Hills provides the Northmen with a powerful and much-needed ally. But the Rhûn Easterlings are a de-stabilizing presence in the area, able to recruit a lot of troops. Both Free Peoples and Dark Servants desperately need the help (or at least promised neutrality) of the Rhûn Easterlings. If the Long Rider player is not aggressive in the region, the Free might be able to afford a pre-emptive strike against the Rhûn. The Evils need to offer the Rhûn lots of goodies to win them over quickly.

Mordor/Ithilien/Gondor--Much changes while much stays the same. The Evils do not need to fear thousands of Eothraim cavalry bearing down on Morannon, nor do they need to worry about the vast Gondorian levies of the 1650 scenario. Northern Gondor has lost two-thirds of its tax base since 1650. Southern Gondor has lost about half of its pop centers. Militarily, life is good for the Evils. They can keep small armies and adequately defend the gates to Mordor, relying on fortifications to keep pop centers from falling to attack. Economically, life ain't so good, and if the Evils try to recruit the massive armies they needed to in 1650, they will go bankrupt quickly. Nevertheless, Ithilien is still Middle-Earth's meat grinder. Evils need to continually send troops into Osgiliath to disrupt Free plans and to try to get the Ithilien pop centers. If the Evils give the Gondors time and peace, the Gondors will be able to combine to take out one Serv capital at a time. Between the two of them, they can comfortably support 4000 heavy infantry, maybe 6000 HI in the short term. These are not the Gondors you know from 1650. Not even close. They still produce a lot of troops and taxes relative to other nations, but not relative to the Mordor fortifications. The Gondors must do their best to keep Ithilien in Free hands and wait for their Mirkwood allies to polish off the Dragon Lord and head south. Without the Eothraim to worry about, the Dog Lord can afford to help the Long Rider in Rhovanion, confident in the Ice King's ability to defend northwestern Mordor.

The Corsairs and the Khand Easterlings play much the same role in 2950 as they did in 1650. The Corsairs will have little fun raiding Mordor's nonexistent coastline, so they will be heavily inclined to join the forces of Sauron. Like the Corsairs, Khand has compelling geographic reasons to turn evil. As with the economy and political geography, the agent balance in 2950 mandates new thinking. Actually, not all of this has to do with the new scenario. The recent upgrade of the guard function in both scenarios has caused some confusion for those who were used to a highly aggressive agent game. Nevertheless, the presence of some agent artifacts among the Free in 2950 makes the DS agent position that much more difficult.

There are, however, some ways for the DS to work around their agent limitations. One is to train agents with guarding and gold thefts before taking on the Free army commanders. Another is to look for unguarded targets. Secondary pop centers and recruiting army commanders are much less likely to be guarded than front-line commanders (unless, of course, the Free have read this article). A third approach is to locate and steal the very agent artifacts which are causing the trouble. Generally, the DS should concentrate somewhat less on stopping the large Free armies (which are just not as large as in 1650) and more on actions which bring in cash, tie down Free resources, and generally cause confusion. Be unpredictable. Remember that guards can't be everywhere, and they cost money while producing nothing. The Free, on the other hand, should look for opportunities to set up guard traps for the DS. The Free have no choice but to name agents and guard whatever they can. The Free should also look for opportunities to put their artifacts to use in modest offensive actions as soon as they are ready.

These three changes -- economies, geography, and agent rules -- cannot help but affect the balance of play. Several commentators have suggested that the changes seriously unbalance the 2950 game. They do not, however, agree on who benefits. One writer notes that, compared to 1650, the Free took a much bigger economic hit than the Servants. Another says that the new geography, agent mix, and character balance make the Evils' position untenable.

We believe that all such evaluations are premature, and contaminated by "1650 thinking." Much of the perceived imbalance may disappear as players cast aside 1650 assumptions and develop strategies and tactics which work in the new scenario.