THE KEYS TO NEUTRAL VICTORY!

In a recently completed ME-PBM "grudge-game", a tightly-knit Good team prevailed in 31 turns over a demoralized and disorganized Evil team. In that game, Haradwaith and the Dunlendings dropped by turn eight; Corsairs dropped on turn 15. Early in the game, the Easterling player jined the Good team; He played well but he was unable to form a strong alliance with any of the good players.

Around turn 25, with the Easterlings standing third in overall points, Good team members began to steal from them. Soon after, a company of Good agents and emissaries assaulted Luglurak (3929) to wrest it away from one of the last remaining Evil positions. An Easterling emissary found there was kidnapped by Gildor. On turn 28, an Easterling army encountered a North Gondor army at Osgiliath; the North Gondor army commander challenged the Easterling commander. On the last turn of the game, I got a 3x5 from the disgruntled Easterling players from his own side!!

An analysis of the play of the five neutral positions in this game reveals the typical problems encountered by neutral positions in ME-PBM and emphasizes the importance of good diplomacy for neutral positions.

The Rhudaur position in this game sent his armies racing for Cardolan on the first turn! Astoundingly, he also sent 3x5's stating that he would only take two Cardolan pop centers, and urged the other northwestern Good positions to stand aside if they hoped to retain his good will!!?? Wanting to focus on the Witch King, and wishing to avoid a hostile Rhudaur pop centers. He also refused to communicate on the telephone. The Arthedain , Noldo, and Cardolan players deliberated for about 15 seconds, decided to eliminate this "loose cannon", and took him out by turn 12. The Dunlendings position in this game went inactive on turn four and dropped around turn eight after spasmodic play in the initial turns; a very lucky outcome for the northwestern Goods who had their hands full with Rhudaur and Witch King.

The Haradwaith played an absolutely Machiavellian diplomacy game, attempting to manipulate the Corsairs into conflict with South Gondor y promising to join in an attack on the South Gondor capital along withe the Quiet Avenger. On turn 2, most of the Corsair starting forces landed in the South Gondor capital-all by themselves. Haradwaith explained that he and the Quiet Avenger had "failed to change relations, and when their fleets collided they were stuck out at sea." The Corsairs smelled a rat and negtioted a peaceful withdrawal from the South Gondor capital. By turn 8, having failed in all his machinations, the Haradwaith player dropped. His holdings were then quickly gobbled up by the Corsairs and the Gondors.

After the near-mishap with South Gondor, the Corsairs encouraged South Gondor to join in an attack on Haradwaith-an attack that occurred beginning turn 10 shortly after Haradwaith dropped. By turn 15, with three of the other four neutrals out of the game and the Easterlings having turned Good, the Corsairs dropped, even though they had the highest point total in the game! The Corsairs perceived that thet could join the Goods and coast to a boring victory of ji the Evils and be slowly byt surely defeated. Wanting a challenge, the Corsairs dropped and joined a new game.

The Easterlings began attacking the Evils around turn 5, and turned Good shortly thereafter. His 3x5 card clearly showed that the Easterling player felt very bitter when he was attacked be other Good players in the endgame. After the game was over, I wrote to him and explained that inherent in the game design, there can be only three players getting those game winner certificates. Did he really expect our team members to sit back and let him cruise to victory? The members of out grudge team are long term PBM and over-the-board pals who have known each other , in some cases, for over twenty years. I told the Easterlin that his position was impossible. He joined the Good side in this game early on because of our series of early victories, without getting any "goodies" for joining us. He made little effort at all to probe for and exploit conflicts among the Good team members. No matter how strong his position was, he had little chance for victory without gaining the acceptance of the rest of the Good team.

This story illustates the unique difficulties faced by neutral positions, especially in grudge games, and highlights the importance of superior diplomacy if a neutral is to succeed in the game. While good diplomacy is important for all positions in ME-PBM, it is essential to succssful play on the part of a neutral position. A neutral faces difficult decisions throughout the game. First, a neutral, often operating with no friends in the game, must gather sufficient information to choose the right allegiance to join. The timing of the allegiance declaration is also critical . A neutral must decide how much and what kind of price he will extract from the side he joins. The problems facing a neutral are more difficult in a team game, and even worse in a grudge game.

GETTING INFORMATION

CHOICE OF ALLEGIANCE

TIMING OF ALLEGIANCE CHOICE

A mid-game declaration (anytime after turn 7, but beofre the endgame) usually results in your position "jumping in front of the parade". Suddenly you vault into one of the top three positions for that allegiance. Everybody on your side knows it, and they will very likely resent it, especially if they have been fighting and bleeding while you have been sitting there getting fat.

An end-game declaration is the most dangerous strategy. With this type of declaration, you deliberately try to "jump in front of the parade" by timing your change of allegiance to be very near the end of the game. If the winning side detects that this is what you are trying to do, they might attack you militarily (until you declare) and/or with characters. You must be strong enough to repel or endure this attack and still be able to bring about the end of the game beofre your own allegiance members damage your winning chances.

A good rule of thumb: try to declare just as the game begins to tip in favor of one side or the other. As long as the game is still a toss-up, you can safely post-pone declaration.

THE "PRICE" FOR JOINING

When negotiating to join a side, follow three basic rules. First, don't get greedy; the good will of your allegiance-mates is worth far more than an extra artifact. Second, accept what is offered a player that freely offers you something is less likely to resent you for taking it. Third, get concessions that count - ask for the artifact or the pop center that you need for my individual victory condion, and only ask for one of them.

NEUTRALS IN TEAM AND GRUDE GAMES

The neutral must deal with the bonds of friendship that exist among the team members that ofter stretch back for years in the real world. These bonds are difficult to overcome. The task of the neutral is to break in and become a team member. If it is a team game with more than one fraction per side, the neutral must also decide which fraction to favor - this can be as difficult as choosing allegiances. In a grudge game, attaing acceptance by the ten-man team of the allegiance you choose is even more difficult. It may be impossible. No matter what you do, you have a difficult time winning. A possible option is to try to split or divide the team and align yourself with the strongest fraction.

Playing a solo neutral in a grudege game is possibly the greatest challenge available to a skilled ME-PBM player.

NEUTRAL PLAY IN THE END GAME

Playing Neutrals is tough and requires solid diplomatic skills. I encourage everyone to try it- its a challenge even tougher than playing the Woodmen!