Population Center Development

    by Brian D. Mason


    ABSTRACT

    One of the most important aspects of the early game is deciding where to create or post camps. While many nations lack the emissaries with the necessary skill level to create camps, despite it being an easy skill, almost all possess one or more commanders with the skill level necessary to post camps, an average difficulty order. One of the most difficult decisions in the early game is deciding where camps should be located. This article will discuss some of the reasons behind the placement of camps: which type of character should do it, resource production, financial considerations, and security. Then the strengths and weaknesses of various nations will be discussed, as well as some possible camp locations.


    1. Who Should Place the Camps?

    Many of the nations have commanders who, when travelling with an army, have the command skill which would allow order 552 (Post Camp) to be executed with a very good chance of success. Also, very few nations have emissaries with even the modest skill level needed to execute order 555 (Create Camp) with a good chance of success. Despite this, those nations without good ( > 30) emissaries would be advised to create one using order 725 (Name New Character), and then subsequently have that emissary execute order 734 (Name New Character as Emissary) as many times as necessary. Having a character in an army posting camps is not advisable for several reasons: one, it does not improve the command skill of the commander, two, when posting camps rather than training troops or training the army the commander does not improve his command rank and the training rank of the army or troops is not improved, and three it costs twice as much. For the additional cost of posting three camps you could name an additional character and have gold to spare. A stable of about three good emissaries can be used at all stages of the game, in creating camps when their skill levels are low, in improving population centers and bribing/recruiting characters or double agents when their skill levels are moderate or high. As it becomes more difficult to place camps at later stages of the game, it is important that you create emissaries fast and get your camps created quickly, especially if you start the game with few good emissaries.


    2. Resource Production

    The most important factor in camp placement is determining what types of which resources you need production, and where in nearby hexes these can be located. The spell reveal production is relatively easy to research (if you do not already have a character who can cast it) and this can determine locations which can supply the most needed commodity. Another option is having an agent Scout Hex (915), however, that has the detrimental effect of only determining production value of one hex (although with much greater precision). Another disadvantage of the Scout Hex option is that it takes an agent into a hex with no objectives where he may be unable to cast a skill order on the following turn. It is usually better in the early game to have agents improving their ranks or out performing more specialized agent tasks. Below is a list of the mean production of each hex type taken from several games, and setups of many different nations, as well as additional contributions from other players. The production has been modified such that this is the production value of a camp in warm weather (that is, 100 percent production values). Keep in mind that the climate in your area will effect these mean production values and that mountainous terrain also will typically have one or two grades cooler climate than surrounding plains. The first column gives the resource type, the second column describes the rows, the first row being the terrain type, the second row the number of sites in the sample. Within each production type the first row is the number of sites in which that product is present, the next row the average of those sites and the final row the average of all sites. Some of these (especially desert terrain) may suffer from small number statistics, so the results may skewed. Also, note that no information is given for swamp hexes. 


    Table 1. Statistical Treatment of Resource Development

Commodity    Terrain           Plains    Desert   Forest   Rough  Mountains 
	# Sites   	        138         8      62       108      87      
Leather     	# With          138  	    8        5       31       0      
           	avg. per        363        294     408      302       0      
           	total avg.      363    	   294      33       87       0      
Bronze     	# with            0         0        8       32      86      
           	avg. per          0         0      366      295     304      
           	total avg.        0         0       47       87     242      
Steel     	# with            0         1        4       33      48      
           	avg. per          0       290      144      189     219      
           	total avg.        0        36        9       58      97      
Mithril    	# with            0         0        0        0      45      
          	avg. per          0         0        0        0      26      
           	total avg.        0         0        0        0      11      
Food       	# with          138         0       62       43       0      
           	avg. per       1138         0     1223      956       0      
           	total avg.     1138         0     1223      381       0      
Timber     	# with            0         0       59       51       0      
           	avg. per          0         0      426      365       0      
           	total avg.        0         0      405      172       0      
Mounts     	# with          135         8        4       61       0      
           	avg. per         80        76      108       74       0      
           	total avg.       78        76        7       42       0      
Gold       	# with            0         0        3       82      82      
           	avg. per          0         0     1733     1753    1857      
           	total avg.        0         0       84     1331    1410
    Clearly, from inspection of the list, the type terrain with the most varied production type is hills/rough, which can produce all types of materials except mithril. For nations which are relatively weak in metal production for armor (primarily the Free Peoples) the most profitable terrain type are mountain hexes. However, mountain hexes often contain dragons, which rarely have good effects on the loyalty of Free People population centers, or the health of the Emissary posting the camp. Sometimes a safer strategy is to place them in hill/rough hexes which have been already determined to produce the desired resource. Another advantage to the hill/rough option is that those hexes typically have better climate which has the effect of increasing production.

    Looking over your production and estimating needs for your nation and then placing camps to produce what you need is often a good plan. If you start with few mounted troops and few sources of the supplies that are needed to build them (mounts, leather, bronze or steel if desired for armor and weapons) it is unlikely that you can get that all cavalry army you want on the field anytime soon. However, if you are fighting someone who is aware of your nation strengths and weaknesses then planning to build them in later turns might be an good plan.


    3. Financial Considerations

    Sometimes camps can be placed to make resources to sell. For many nations, selling supplies is a vital (and sometimes necessary) means to float your economy. Despite the initial outlay, almost all hexes can produce in just a couple of turns the supplies which could be sold to pay for themselves, even if they do not produce gold directly. Some nations can choose one or two resources which they can use to buy and sell on succeeding turns to drive up and down the price of that commodity. This "playing of the market" can be most effective when several nations cooperate to buy all of a commodity and then sell all the following turn when prices or high. Increasing production in this commodity will allow you to generate larger profits, or give you the production you need to develop on the one hand, and execute buy/sell orders with, one the other.

    Gold production does not decrease with increasing population center size however other resources do. Each increase in the size of a population center will require a few turns to recoup the losses for development. Listed below are the turns needed to "break even" on population center improvement at several various tax rates. In considering a break even cost, it is necessary to not only consider how long it takes you to recover the cost of investment, but also how long to catch up to the amount that the population center would produce. 


    
Table 2. Turns to Recoup Cost of Improvement

Pop Center Type   Cost    40 % Tax   60 % Tax   80 % Tax   100 % Tax 

Village           4000     4.00        2.67       2.00       1.60        
Town              6000     6.00        4.00       3.00       2.40        
Major Town        8000     8.00        5.33       4.00       3.20        
City             10000    10.00        6.67       5.00       4.00

    In addition to the time needed to "break even" on the cost is the lost production over the interval. Depending on the commodity the production loss may or may not be trivial. It is generally a good idea to improve population centers whose production type you do not need.


    4. Security

    Another important consideration in improving population centers is the safety of the population center. Don't improve population centers you cannot hold. There is no need to improve population centers for your enemies to take. Also, in developing population centers try to put them in locations which are hard to get to or not on the maps of other players (especially neutrals and enemies). If you have a surplus of secure areas then allowing your allies to develop in some of them is often a good idea for team play. Also, population centers without fortifications, characters, or armies present will begin to disintegrate if the loyalty drops too low.


    5. Nation Strengths, Weaknesses, and Camp Placement

    Now, a short rating for each nation is listed below. Ranked as good, average or poor are emissary strength and possible camp placement as well as a short listing for where might be good locations to place camps for that nation. Locations can be rated as good, average, or poor based on their relative security from enemy nations. If this region is not on your map (where you can keep an eye on it) the location rating is downgraded. Also, if you are competing with many other nations over a small area to develop (e.g. many of the Dark Servants in Mordor) the location rating is downgraded. 


    Table 3. Rating Population Center Development

       
			Emissary   	  Center        Suggested 
Nation            	Strength   	Development   	Locations 

Woodmen      	        Average    	 Poor 		West of Anduin and South of 					
							Lothlorien  
Northmen          	Average    	 Good         	North of River Running  
Eothraim          	Poor       	 Average        Same as Northmen  
Arthedain         	Average    	 Average        West Downs  
Cardolan          	Average    	 Average        Southwest of map and West 				
					 		Downs  
Northern Gondor 	Average    	 Good           Future Rohan, North of 					
							White Mountains  
Southern Gondor 	Good       	 Good           South of White Mountains  
Dwarves           	Poor       	 Average        Far West in and around Blue 			
							Mountains  
Sinda Elves       	Good       	 Poor           same as Woodmen  
Noldo Elves       	Good       	 Good           same as Dwarves  
Witch-King        	Good       	 Average        North of and in Northern 			
							Misty Mountains  
Dragon Lord   	    	Good       	 Poor          	Somewhere in Mordor, or 			
							isolated part of map  
Dog Lord          	Average    	 Average       	Somewhere in Mordor  
Cloud Lord       	Poor       	 Average       	Somewhere in and slightly 			
							South of Mordor  
Blind Sorcerer 		Poor       	 Average       	Somewhere in and slightly 			
							East of Mordor  
Ice King          	Poor       	 Poor          	Somewhere in Mordor  
Quiet Avenger  		Good       	 Average       	Far South  
Fire King         	Poor       	 Poor          	Somewhere in Mordor  
Long Rider        	Average   	 Poor          	East of Mordor  
Dark Lieutenants 	Good       	 Poor          	Somewhere in Mordor  
Corsairs         	Good       	 Good          	Southwest of Map  
Haradwaith     		Average    	 Poor          	Near Current Locations  
Dunlendings   	 	Poor       	 Good          	Southern two-thirds of Map  
Rhudaur           	Poor       	 Average       	Between pop centers and 			
							Misty Mountains  
Easterlings       	Poor       	 Average       	Far East

    An alternative strategy to selecting secure locations would be to select locations far from you and not appearing on any other nation map. These locations, if developed, could serve as jumping off points for campaigns.

    Obviously, cooperation is needed among the Dark Servant players in deciding what parts of Mordor to develop. Care must also be taken that the very good emissaries of the Witch-King and the Dragon Lord have somewhere to develop. Also, the Free People pairs of the Woodmen and Sinda, Noldo and Dwarves, Arthedain and Cardolan, Eothraim and Northmen also need to cooperate in developing population centers. Most of the Neutrals can work independent of others with the possible exception of the Haradwaith and Corsairs.


    6. Conclusion

    Population centers can have noticeable effects on your nations place in the game and effective placement of these population centers can dramatically effect your outcome.

    The author gratefully acknowledges the contributions to Table 1 and the comments of Tom Walton, Glen Mayfield and Jeff Holzhauer.


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